Before starting SEO on any keyword, you need to know how hard it will be to rank. Many people judge this by the number of Google results for a phrase, but that figure tells you very little. Here is how I actually measure the competition for a keyword in Google.
Why the number of results is not a measure of competition
Years ago I used the results count shown under the Google search bar to illustrate how crowded SEO had become. The keyword “seo expert” had about 14,800,000 results in 2013, and by 2019 that had grown to around 135,000,000:
Fig.1. “seo expert” search results in 2013
Fig.2. “seo expert” search results in 2019
The trend is real, but the number itself is only Google’s rough estimate of every page that mentions the words. You are not competing with millions of pages. You are competing with the ten or so that reach the first page, and that is where to look.
How to find the competition for a keyword in Google
1. Look at who is on page one
Search for your keyword in a private browser window from your target location and note the websites that appear. National brands, government sites and large publishers are hard to beat. Small local businesses, forums and thin directory listings suggest an easier opportunity.
2. Study the ranking pages
Open the top results and ask: what type of page ranks (service pages, guides, product pages or local listings), how detailed are they, and how well do they answer the search? If they are short or outdated, a better page can compete.
3. Check the strength of the competing websites
SEO tools such as Ahrefs, Semrush and Moz estimate each site’s authority and how many websites link to it. If the ranking pages have links from hundreds of sites and yours has a handful, the keyword will take longer.
4. Use a keyword difficulty score as a guide
Most SEO tools give each keyword a difficulty score. Treat it as a starting point rather than a verdict, as it is based mainly on links and ignores how good the ranking content actually is.
5. Check the map pack and AI answers
For local searches, the Google map results often sit above the normal listings, so check which businesses appear there too. For many questions, Google’s AI Overview now answers above the results, which reduces clicks for that keyword.
6. Use your own data
In Google Search Console, the Performance report shows the searches you already appear for and your average position. Keywords where you sit on page two are usually the quickest wins.
Start sooner rather than later
The lesson from those old screenshots still stands: competition for valuable keywords keeps growing, so the earlier you start building strong pages and a good reputation, the easier it is to stay ahead. If you would like help judging which keywords are realistic for your site, see what SEO consultancy costs or read my guide on reaching Google’s first page.
Not sure if a keyword is winnable for your site? Ask me for a free keyword review.